[30.06.03]

Yevhen Marchuk was appointed the minister of defense. As a result the position of the secretary of the Council of National Security and Defense (CNSD) became vacant. President Kuchma said that he intended to appoint a new secretary approximately in 10 days (that is by about July 5) having considered different candidatures.

One of possible candidatures is incumbent head of the presidential administration Viktor Medvedchuk. The experts consider three options: (a) Medvedchuk's appointment (30%); (b) a man unknown to everybody (20%); (c) a person with a low political influence and hence political significance of the position will drop down (50%).

In the case of Medvedchuk's appointment, this politician, whose influence lately has been substantial and who almost did not appear publicly and kept a low key profile, perhaps will become a speaking public politician..

Commentary. The CNSD recently has played a significant role in Ukrainian politics as a tool of control over the government and the apparat. In particular, dismissals of minister of defense Shkidchenko and minister of ecology Shevchuk in both cases was preceded by a CNSD meeting which considered a report criticizing the progress of affairs in the relevant ministries.

Therefore one may infer that President Kuchma will keep this possibility for himself and will appoint a person as the CNSD secretary who will be able to fulfil these tasks.

A few days ago Ihor Smeshko an expert on issues of security was appointed the first deputy to the CNSD secretary. In 1992-1995 he was a military attaché in the Ukrainian embassy in the U.S..

One expects that the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) on July 3 will send to the Constitutional Court two drafts political reform: a version proposed by President Kuchma and a version proposed by the parliamentary commission. If the Constitutional Court, as expected, confirms that both drafts do not contradict the Constitution, then in the fall voting will be held for one of these drafts in parliament (it is necessary to obtain 2/3 of the votes).

Both drafts imply the existence of limited rights for the president and extended parliamentary rights.

At the same time the opposition faction Our Ukraine (leader Viktor Yushchenko) proposes to set a moratorium for any changes of the Constitution till 2006.

Because of bad harvest, which is expected this year a food panic began in Ukraine. Grocery shops sold out all stocks of two kinds of food staffs: buckwheat cereals and sugar. The experts believe this panic is without any basis since bad harvest may create problems for farmers (in some regions all plantations were destroyed by frost whereas in other regions this destruction was caused by draught), but not for consumers.

Nevertheless the opposition in parliament accuses the government that it did not take to appropriate measures in time. Some regions of Ukraine introduced price regulation. At the same time some analysts believe that taking such measures will only deteriorate the situation, which should come to normal by itself since there are no real reasons for misgivings.

On June 30 - July 2 Ukraine was officially visited by Russia's defense minister Sergei Ivanov.

He had talks with minister of defense of Ukraine Yevhen Marchuk. The observers noted that two ministers constantly held similar positions: both started the career in intelligence agencies, both later occupied positions of the secretary of Council of National Security and Defense in Russia and Ukraine.

Segei Ivanov also met with President of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma..

Topics of the negotiations - cooperation in military field and security, a project of a joint military aircraft AN-70 and other topics.

The U.S. Senate approved on June 27 a new ambassador to Ukraine - John Herbst.

On June 28 Ukraine marked the national holiday - the Constitution Day (adopted in 1996).

On July 3 - 4 Yalta (Ukraine) will be a venue for a summit of the GUUAM regional organization. Presidents of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova and Azerbaijan will take part in it (participation of the president of Uzbekistan so far has not been confirmed) a U.S. representative will act as an observer.